US solar market in flux

右下角图中显示的管道包括已批准，正在建设或完成或运行的项目。这些是IHS Markit安装预测中的基线项目。计划在美国完成的公用事业规模太阳能项目的2022管道比2021年和2023年大约50％。该积累是大流行有关的供应链影响的综合效应，太阳能投资税收抵免（ITC）时间表以及有关连续性安全港截止日期以及其他因素，例如州可再生投资组合标准（RPS）要求（RPS）要求和公司电力购买协议（CPPA）等其他因素，以及多个内部税收服务（IRS）。

Previously, companies operated under the assumption that the ITC continuity safe harbor placed a 2023 in-service deadline for projects that started construction in 2019, 2020, and 2021. Developers originally planned for completion in 2022 to meet the in-service deadline in 2023. In the past, the anticipation leading up to the ITC step-down in 2016, prior to its extension in late 2015, resulted in a large, accumulated pipeline. Similarly, the 2022 pipeline reflects anticipated ITC step-downs, with a significant buildup of ITC 30 and ITC 26 projects in a few key states.

五个州

Texas, California, Ohio, Indiana, and Nevada constitute 39 GW or 59% of U.S. installations in the 2022-23 pipeline.

Texas, California, and Nevada remain key drivers of the U.S. utility-scale market. In Texas, more than one-quarter of the pipeline over the next two years is from corporate PPAs where the purchaser is a non-utility entity. Primoris and Mortenson have EPC contracts for 20% of the Texas pipeline. In California, Recurrent Energy, CIM Group, 8minutenergy, Clearway Energy Group, and EDP Renewables will be the primary owners for over half of the 2022-23 pipeline. In Nevada, NV Energy will be the PPA electricity purchaser for half of the state’s installations, while half of the 2022-23 pipeline will be owned by EDF Group and Primergy.

With comparatively moderate solar resources, the burgeoning Ohio and Indiana markets will see significant installations driven by unique circumstances in each state. In Ohio, despite reductions to the state’s Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (AEPS), and other recent policies, corporate solar PPAs and the closure of economically challenged coal plants continue to give the opportunity to solar. In July, Vistra said it will accelerate the retirement of its coal-fired Zimmer Power Plant to mid-2022 due to the plant’s inability to meet the price point in the PJM capacity auction for the 2022-23 period.

Also in Ohio, Amazon Web Services has signed 2 GW of solar PPAs to power its facilities. The 2022 installation pipeline in Indiana is also being driven by retirements of uneconomic, aging coal-fired resources. Northern Indiana Public Service Company (NIPSCO) is retiring two coal-fired units at its Schahfer Generating Station by the end of 2021, and the remaining two units by May 2023. This is part of NIPSCO’s plan to retire all of its coal-fired generating units by 2028.

采购的挑战

Solar PV installations were expected to peak in 2022 because developers had to satisfy the 2023 in-service deadline to capture the ITC. However, the IRS extended the ITC safe harbor period from four to six years for solar PV projects that began construction between 2016 and 2020, therefore removing the urgency to install in 2022.

取决于公司如何适应膨胀的货运成本和模块供应和政策挑战，其中许多太阳能项目可能会继续前进，直到2022年完成并于2023年开始运营。ITC时机也被大流行的供应链影响加剧。由于全球集装箱运输短缺，港口拥塞和高零件价格，由于2021年初的原材料价格上涨而引起的零件供应挑战可能会在2022年造成延误，尤其是在2022年安装的紧急情况下，以满足服务期间的截止日期。

增加了不确定性,美国海关和Border Protection Withhold Release Order (WRO) on silica-based products made by Hoshine Silicon Industry Co. has resulted in multiple companies having solar PV modules detained at ports, with no exact data on the volume being detained or the potential pipeline impact. Market drivers such as rising prices for renewable energy certificates, PPAs, and emissions credits are improving the outlook for solar development, but challenges remain in offsetting inflated freight costs and disruptions to the module supply chain.

IHS Markit’s forecast does not include approved projects without PPAs, as projects without a legal obligation to serve customers may seek to defer development to align with the ITC extension to 2025. This does not mean projects lacking PPAs won’t achieve installation by 2022, as projects at the planning stage have already incurred costs and permitting and contractual requirements for certain projects may set the pace regardless of any PPA or the ITC extension.

尽管2022管道的下行风险，但避风港的扩展最终改变了IHS Markit在2022年后的预测的形状，从而增加了2023年至2025年之间的总安装。

关于作者

埃里克·赖特（Eric Wright）是负责北美太阳能光伏市场IHS Markit的清洁能源技术团队的高级研究分析师，重点是下游分析。他在州级政策分析和项目实施方面具有背景，并为特定国家的出版物，项目跟踪和预测做出了贡献。此前，他曾是一名能源分析师，评估了综合资源计划，可再生投资组合和能源效率标准，分布式能源项目以及公用事业费率案例的影响以及对客户和公用事业客户类别的新工厂投资的影响。